2022 January-February, China's total social logistics 51.8 trillion yuan, at comparable prices, an increase of 7.2% year-on-year, the growth rate of total social logistics to continue the rebound since the fourth quarter of the previous year, while significantly higher than the level of 2019 before the epidemic, showing that the overall logistics demand is still in the rebound channel, logistics operation is off to a steady start.
From a structural point of view, internal look at the expansion of domestic demand to promote consumption policy effects continue to emerge, industrial, consumer logistics demand to maintain rapid growth; external look at the global economic cycle has not yet returned to normal levels, import logistics demand continued to fall.
Industrial logistics demand growth faster new dynamic energy continues to strengthen
After the holidays, enterprises orderly resume work and production, industrial logistics demand to maintain rapid growth. 1-2 months, total industrial logistics increased by 7.5% year-on-year, compared with the two-year average growth rate of 2020-2021 accelerated by 1.4 percentage points.
From the structural point of view, the new dynamic energy continues to power, the industrial logistics demand support role is enhanced. High-tech manufacturing industry and equipment manufacturing industry to continue the faster growth trend, 1-2 months, high-tech manufacturing industry, equipment manufacturing industry, total logistics growth of 14.4%, 9.6% year-on-year, the growth rate of 2.3, 3.4 percentage points faster than in December last year.
From the industry, computer communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, instrumentation manufacturing have achieved double-digit growth, the growth rate has accelerated from the ring. In addition, the automobile manufacturing industry grew 7.2% year-on-year, accelerating 4.4 percentage points from December of the previous year, in particular, the production of new energy vehicles grew 150.5% year-on-year, continuing to grow at a high rate based on the previous year's exponential growth.
People's consumption and logistics demand recovery accelerated new industries continue to power
1-2 months, in the "online New Year's Eve" and other online network promotion factors driven by the production side of consumer goods manufacturing logistics demand to speed up the recovery, the sales side of e-commerce online shopping and other logistics demand is hot. From the production side, the consumer goods manufacturing industry to speed up the recovery, January-February consumer goods manufacturing logistics demand increased by 9.7% year-on-year, compared with the two-year average growth rate of 2020-2021 accelerated by 5.2 percentage points.
From the sales side, the new industry to help the role is still obvious, 1-2 months, the unit and the total logistics of residential goods grew 10.5% year-on-year; among them, the online retail sales of physical goods grew 12.3% year-on-year, the e-commerce logistics index shows that the first two months of e-commerce logistics business volume growth rate of more than 25% year-on-year, rural business volume growth is also close to 25%, maintaining a rapid growth trend.
Import price increase and volume decline Logistics demand continues to fall
Since the fourth quarter of last year, the international commodity prices continue to rise, causing a certain impact on China's relevant imports. Data show that from January to February, the flow of imported goods fell 3.5% year-on-year, down for five consecutive months. However, it should also be seen that the rate of decline in the flow of imports has narrowed this year, with the future of China's economy and the gradual recovery of the supply chain, the scale of imports will also be expanded.
From the perspective of the import structure, the bulk of commodities affected by factors such as sharp price increases, crude oil, coal and lignite, steel imports have declined, the cumulative year-on-year decline of 4.9%, 14.0%, 7.9%; agricultural products in the import demand for meat to maintain a downward trend, down 33% year-on-year.
Logistics market scale expansion, accelerated industry integration
Logistics market scale continues to expand and industry consolidation accelerates. since 2021, the logistics industry market scale continues to expand and the growth rate of total logistics industry revenue also maintains a relatively high level. from January to February, total logistics industry revenue is 1.6 trillion yuan, up 9.7% year-on-year, faster than the level of 2019 before the epidemic.
Along with the development and growth of new dynamic energy, the structure of logistics demand continues to change, putting forward higher requirements for logistics services, especially since the epidemic, the transformation and upgrading of the logistics industry has accelerated significantly, and the logistics market has entered a period of accelerated consolidation. China's logistics head 50 enterprise revenue ratio rose to the highest level in recent years, the overall industry concentration has steadily increased, sub-sectors such as express express leading enterprises through mergers and acquisitions to further push up the industry concentration. According to the data of the State Post Bureau, the brand concentration index CR8 of express and parcel services in January-February was 85.3, which is a substantial increase compared with the whole year of 2021 and the same period.
Transportation business grew faster and logistics enterprises operated more efficiently. In terms of physical volume, the social freight volume in February increased by 15.5% year-on-year, of which road freight volume increased by 21.1%. From the enterprise business point of view, the total business index in February instead of falling, the index rose by 0.1 percentage points to 51.2% compared with the previous month. February in the resumption of production and other factors, driven by the logistics industry, physical volume and enterprise business have maintained good growth, while the logistics maintain a more efficient operation efficiency. 0.1 percentage points, remaining above 50% for six consecutive months, reflecting that enterprises take the initiative to improve the efficiency of the use of funds, improve the timeliness of logistics equipment operations, and play a role in regulating the tight balance of supply and demand for personnel in the first two months of the year.
Comprehensive view, the first two months of this year, the macroeconomic recovery trend continued, the scale of logistics demand growth rate to maintain a good level. From the market demand and expectations, the logistics industry sentiment index in the new order index and business activity expectations index were 50.2% and 59.7%, both higher than last month, including business activity expectations index for two consecutive months running in the high boom range, indicating that logistics enterprises on the development of the industry is expected to be good.
However, it should also be seen that since March, instability and uncertainty have increased, the logistics industry to protect the industry chain, supply chain stability has increased the difficulty.
From the perspective of the external environment, the impact of the epidemic in some areas is still ongoing, the uneven level of development of various industries and regions. At the same time, geopolitical conflicts are still continuing, may bring the European direction of cross-border logistics channel is not smooth, capacity constraints, freight prices, supply chain impact on the key commodities to maintain stable prices increased pressure, need to track and analyze, pay close attention.
From the perspective of market dynamics, logistics business operating costs tend to rise, raw materials and labor costs upward pressure has increased, the overall recovery of the industry to further solid foundation:.
First, the price of logistics services and cost linkage is weak. Although oil prices and other raw material costs continue to rise, but the price of logistics services did not see a significant increase. February logistics industry sentiment index in the service price index did not rise but fell 0.2 percentage points, road logistics, coastal bulk freight prices fell, showing that in the current context of homogeneous competition in freight services, the industry's bargaining power is low, the cost and logistics service price linkage there is a certain lag.
Second, the industry's profitability level under further pressure. Key survey data show that January-February key logistics enterprises logistics business costs rose 17.3% year-on-year, the cost of 90.7 yuan per 100 yuan of business income, up 1% year-on-year, and significantly higher than the average level of industrial enterprises above the scale. Among them, under the influence of factors such as rising commodity prices and structural shortage of labor, fuel costs and labor costs rose by more than double digits respectively. From the profit situation, January to February, the key logistics enterprises loss of nearly 30%, up 2.5 percentage points, showing that the logistics enterprises operating pressure has increased, resulting in further compression of the profit margin. Overall revenue margin of about 3%, down 0.2 percentage points over the same period last year. Among them, small and medium-sized micro logistics enterprises more obvious damage, small and micro logistics enterprises revenue margin of less than 3%, lower than the same period last year, with large and medium-sized enterprises there is a large gap.